Now, on to Week 2 where we can overreact to one week’s worth of data and assume we know everything!
We are quite top heavy this week especially in Yahoo! where fully 74% of all entrants are on one of the top three options. There is some hay to be made should any of those three teams fall. Which one (if any) is vulnerable?
Remember, I never (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility (especially when it comes to injuries) in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.
Here are my choices for Week 2 in order of preference:
Denver Broncos – The Broncos may end up atop this list many more weeks in the future. They looked unstoppable against the Colts. The Broncos get to face the Chiefs at home who looked awful against a feisty Titans team and lost two of their starting LBs in Week 1. True, they get Dwayne Bowe back, but I’m not sure that’s worth a lot anymore. I give the Broncos an 84% chance to win.
San Francisco 49ers – The Niners took care of business in Dallas last week though Tony Romo certainly didn’t look fully healthy. They face a Bears team that will be licking its wounds from the embarrassing loss to the Bills. The Bears’ defense, for so long the lynchpin of the team, is bad. They get zero pass rush and can’t seem to cover receivers when they need to. I give the 49ers a 78% chance of winning.
Green Bay Packers – This assumes that Eddie Lacy is in the lineup for the Packers with no restrictions. If he’s out or on a snap count, I’d slide them down behind my number five choice below. The Pack didn’t come out fighting against the Seahawks and paid for it. I give the Packers a 72% chance of winning.
Seattle Seahawks – Wow. What a performance on Opening night for the ‘hawks. They aren’t nearly as devastating a team on the road as they are at home, but they face a middling Chargers’ team that lost a heartbreaker to the Cardinals on Monday night. The Seahawks can get offense from just about anywhere and should be able to overcome the Chargers’ D. I give the Seahawks a 71% of winning.
New Orleans Saints – Another road team this week that generally performs worse outside of its home environs. The Saints go to Cleveland to face a Browns team with a bit of a banged up offense (Ben Tate out, Jordan Cameron hurting). I think the Browns may struggle to slow the Saints down as they gave up 30 points to a Steelers team that doesn’t have all of the weapons the Saints have. I give the Saints a 70% chance to win.
Other teams I like this week: Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans
As for the avoid list, I would stay away from Washington at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is unclear if the new Washington coaching staff has an idea of how to use Robert Griffin III. Or perhaps Griffin isn’t clear on what type of QB he wants to be. Either way, I’m staying away from them until they put something better on the field than what they showed against the Texans. The Jags looked quite good in the first half and have a defense that can stop the type of unimaginative play calling that Jay Gruden put out there.
If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the Minnesota Vikings against the Patriots. This Pats team looked beatable on the offensive line and Bill Belichick changed players like he was an NHL coach and I think that lead to very little continuity especially on defense.
Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.
