Mockingjay’ Sings High Abroad, But Why Is Katniss Shooting Low At Stateside B.O.?, Late night industry domestic B.O. estimates for Friday show Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 with $55.5M from 4,151 screens including Thursday previews of $17M. While that number ranks third behind Catching Fire‘s first day from a year ago of $70.95M (-22%) and The Hunger Games’ March 23, 2012 opening day of $67.26M (-17%), Mockingjay is rocketing toward the sky overseas where it’s collected $33M in its first two days, pacing 5-10% ahead of Catching Fire’s first two days; an international weekend that hit $146M (more details on foreign toward the end). Lionsgate will report its Friday estimate in a few hours.
With the current FSS opening domestic projection for Mockingjay being in the $120M range — an anticipated record for 2014 to date, but a low for the bigscreen franchise; there’s no reason for anyone to cry. The Hunger Games franchise isn’t broken. Everybody, calm down: Mockingjay grabbed an A- Cinemascore, giving the film extra feathers to fly heading into the Thanksgiving frame (the first two films earned As). All of the boxes were checked heading into this weekend: Lionsgate did a sublime job marketing the film as we detailed in the Wednesday preview.
The pic stars some of our favorite people, i.e. Jennifer Lawrence, the late Philip Seymour Hoffman and even Game of Thrones fave Natalie Dormer, who shaved the side of her head for some HG action. Not to mention, Mockingjay is bowing during the pre-Thanksgiving hotbed frame, a time when moviegoers are expecting a big, loud hit. At 68% fresh on the Tomatometer, Mockingjay didn’t totally rub critics the wrong way, however, there are grumpy guys like The Boston Globe‘s Ty Burr calling the threequel a “cash grab” which has tainted the film’s critics score from the previous two installments (HG‘s 84% and CF‘s 89%).
So, why the lower gross?
Yes, Mockingjay doesn’t have the IMAX uptick like CF did a year ago. Paramount needed those hubs to show off the jawdropping space and tidal wave scenes in Interstellar. Back out the $12.2M IMAX bow from CF‘s opening weekend of $158.07M and you’re left with largely a 2D take of $145.87M. Bad weather? Nah, Buffalo, NY was never a B.O. fountainhead. The soft domestic box office is a factor: Mockingjay and Transformers 4 are the only films to open to $100M-plus this year; while 2013 boasted three $10oM-plus openers and 2012 had four.
Mockingjay’s lower than franchise-record opening simply boils down to threequel-itis, a common, cyclical trend that effects a franchise’s third installments at the domestic B.O. without any major reason other than that they’re the third chapter. When Threequelitis strikes, as in the supposed case of Mockingjay, does it mean the franchise is broken? No. Does it mean that fans are put off? Hell, no. Hunger Games fans have all the time between now and Dec. 12 when the next tentpole arrives, Fox’s Exodus: Gods and Kings.
