The Tiger and the Bear: China-Russia Alliance Shrouded in Mystery -- Paul D. Shinkman, US News and World Report
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, still brushing dust off his shoulders from the Berlin Wall’s collapse, traveled to Beijing in late December 1992 to meet with his Chinese counterparts. Newspaper headlines at the time made much ado about Yeltsin’s decision to cut the visit short, with some speculating he sought to placate concerns of the U.S. Congress – fresh off a Cold War “win” – about a new pan-Asian, anti-American bloc. Others believed it was the inevitable result of decades of animosity between the two Eastern powers, combined with a renewed Chinese anger over Russia’s abandonment of true communist ideals.
Whatever the cause, outside observers could agree on what brought the two leaders together: China was expanding and wanted cutting-edge technologies, including military weaponry, and Russia desperately needed cash. The leaders signed accords and held a summit to usher in what the Chinese called "relations of good-neighborliness and friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation."
For the former Soviet Union, China was a potential enemy," Yeltsin said at the time. "But today, for Russia, it is no longer a potential enemy."
The progression of the countries' relationship in the subsequent two decades remains as steady as it is mysterious. China and Russia have learned to lean on one another, sometimes strategically, and sometimes because they require each other to keep the lights on. As Russia continues to meddle in eastern Ukraine, China has been reticent to respond despite its highly publicized interest in investment there last year. The situation is yet another telltale sign that much of this powerful alliance has been forged and maintained deep behind closed doors.
The latest incarnation of Russian and Chinese leadership will meet again this month to potentially finalize details of a critical energy alliance. Such an accord will offer new clues into Russia’s apparent neo-Soviet designs and China’s desires to become a legitimate 21st-century superpower.
Publicly, the relationship could not appear rosier. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in March said the China-Russia relationship was at "its best period in history," describing it as characterized by trust, support and intense cooperation.
“We’ve never had such trusted relations,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said of the Chinese during a live Q&A last month. “Cooperation with China, including that in international issues, is at unprecedented level[s].”
“Best friends” might be an oversimplification, but there are significant reasons for Russia and China to appear as such in front of company. For one, China is reportedly Russia's top trade partner after the 28-nation European Union. Trade turnover between the two countries totaled nearly $90 billion last year, according to Bloomberg, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has said the countries are aiming for it to hit $100 billion by 2015.
The driving force behind this partnership is, as one expert called it, a “naturally complementary” relationship, largely founded in energy. China’s booming industrialization leaves it parched for more sources of fuel. An estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest oil importer this year, and its growth in oil consumption accounted for one-third of the world’s consumption growth last year.
Russia, meanwhile, has a lot of energy to sell. The EIA says it is the world’s second-largest producer of dry natural gas and the third-largest producer of liquid fuels. Energy revenues account for half of the country's budget, but it will have to find new buyers in the near future: Angered over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, the U.S. has stepped up rhetoric calling on Europe to wean itself off Russian gas in exchange for American and other alternative exports.
